European Chamber advocates for targeted and precise approach to risk management and economic security Go back »

2024-03-20 | All chapters

Beijing, 20th March 2024 – The European Union Chamber of Commerce in China (European Chamber), in partnership with China Macro Group (CMG), today published Riskful Thinking: Navigating the Politics of Economic Security. Based on in-depth Chamber member interviews and extensive research, the report details the different approaches adopted by the European Union (EU), China and the United States (US) for managing perceived threats to their respective economies, as well as the actions that European businesses are taking to build resilience into their China operations and mitigate a growing number of risks. 

The EU has so far been careful to build its de-risking toolkit in a way that minimises the impact that it could have on its engagement with its trade and investment partners. It focuses on building resilience through diversification—an approach that was catalysed by both the recognition of the need to eliminate overdependence on single sources of critical goods, and the supply chain disruptions caused by the COVID pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—and removing potential market distortions, while remaining as open a market as possible. 

By contrast, China’s approach is far more comprehensive, in terms of the number of policies that now have a security rationale, the potential scope of their implementation and the impact they would have on business. Since the mid-2000s there has been a steady convergence of development and security concerns in China, with the goals of achieving a high degree of ‘controllability’ of its industrial system, technological self-reliance and supply chain security now of paramount importance. 

For its part, the US has moved away from its rhetoric of ‘decoupling’ in favour of ‘de-risking’, creating the perception that its approach is closely aligned with the EU’s. However, while both economies aim to build their domestic industrial capabilities and bolster their competitiveness in key industries, the US differs in that it has also been taking a more pre-emptive approach, with the goal of impeding China’s development in key technological fields.

At the corporate level, the volume, complexity and severity of the risks companies face have grown exponentially in recent years, as politics has seeped into the business environment. While Chamber members differ in how they are responding, clear sets of strategies are emerging with some pulled into the China market to increase localisation and/or investment, and others pushed to shift investments and/or parts of their operations away from the country.

“While it is natural that all global actors will seek to ensure the security of their respective economies, it should be done in a way that is minimally disruptive to business,” said Jens Eskelund, president of the European Chamber. “Actions taken in the name of risk management and strengthening economic security should be proportionate, targeted and precise and should never become a cover for protectionism.” 

“China’s 14th Five-Year Plan marks a strategic shift in Chinese policymaking and includes risk management as a key pillar,” said Markus Herrmann Chen, co-founder and managing director of China Macro Group. “Today, policymakers have a comprehensive toolkit at their disposal geared towards mitigating risks and promoting security in China’s economy, which goes beyond merely advancing self-reliance.”

Download the report here.

中国欧盟商会呼吁建立精准制度，实现经济安全和风险管理

北京，2024年3月20日 – 中国欧盟商会联合China Macro Group (CMG) 今日发布报告《风险意识：经济安全的政治意义》。基于深度会员采访和广泛研究，本报告详细阐明欧盟、中国和美国处理经济风险时采取的不同策略，以及欧洲企业为强化在华运营韧性、弱化日益增长的风险所采取的具体措施。

目前，欧盟审慎建立去风险化相关政策，力求降低政策对其贸易和投资伙伴的潜在影响。为消除对单一供应来源关键商品的过度依赖，应对新冠肺炎疫情和俄乌冲突引发的供应链危机，欧盟着力提升供应链多元化布局，提高供应链韧性，并在保障市场开放的同时消除潜在市场扭曲。

从安全相关政策数量、政策潜在实施范围，以及政策对商业潜在影响而言，中国的策略更为详尽。自21世纪00年代中，为实现产业体系高度可控，科技自主和供应链安全，安全要素与发展进程逐步融合。

美国逐步从“脱钩”过度为“去风险”，这种政策转变看上去好像与欧盟一致。虽然欧美均以增强国内产业能力、提高关键产业竞争力为经济目标，但是美国的策略更为主动，意在抑制中国在关键技术领域的发展。

从企业层面而言，由于商业环境逐步政治化，近年来企业面临的风险量级、复杂性和严峻性成倍增长。商会成员已明确制定不同策略积极应对：部分会员公司投身中国市场，提高本地化和/或投资；部分会员公司被迫将其投资和/或业务转移出中国。

中国欧盟商会主席彦辞表示：“确保经济安全属于正当政治策略，但在具体执行过程中应尽量降低其对商业的影响。从实现风险管理，加强经济安全出发采取的相关策略应秉持适度、精准原则，绝不能成为保护主义的幌子。”

China Macro Group联合创始人兼董事总经理陈瑞华表示：“‘十四五’规划以风险管理为重要支柱，标志着中国政策的战略转型。现阶段，中国在推进自力更生的基础上，系统打出一套政策‘组合拳’，弱化经济风险，提高经济安全。”

点击这里下载报告（英文版）。

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